Nomura Rates Titan as Tata Group Stock with 25%+ Upside — Is It Worth Buying in 2025?

1. Introduction / Hook

The Tata Group’s Titan Company has just drawn the spotlight from global brokerage Nomura, which has initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and pegged a target price of ₹4,275, implying over 25% upside from current levels.
In this post, we deep dive into why Nomura is bullish, Titan’s financials, key risks, and whether this is a good buy in 2025.

2. What Did Nomura Say?

• Nomura’s first coverage on Titan comes with a Buy rating and a target of ₹4,275 — ~27% above current market levels.
• They highlight Titan’s strong presence in the discretionary consumption space, and believe the firm is well positioned to benefit from robust demand across jewellery and lifestyle verticals.
• According to Nomura, margin pressures are largely behind Titan, and concerns over profitability are overdone.

3. Titan’s Recent Performance & Highlights

• Titan’s market capitalization is ~₹3,01,030 crores.
• Over the last year, the stock has underperformed — delivering a ~−9.7% return.
• In FY23–FY25, Titan posted ~22% sales growth CAGR, though margins faced pressure.
• Titan’s profit, sales & ROE CAGRs in recent years: ~15%, ~28%, ~32% respectively.

4. Why Nomura Sees >25% Upside

Nomura’s bullish thesis rests on several pillars:

Factor	Rationale
Structural Demand	Titan can tap further demand in jewellery & luxury / lifestyle segments, especially in Tier 2/3/4 cities.
Wedding & Festive Tailwinds	The brokerage expects sustained demand during wedding / festive seasons, which drive discretionary spending.
Margin Stabilization	They believe margin pressures seen recently are temporary and will stabilize as cost issues ease.
Rising Share of Wedding Jewellery	The share of wedding jewellery in Titan’s revenues may increase from ~20% to ~25% medium-term.

5. Risks & What Could Go Wrong

• Margin Pressure Persists: If raw material costs, labor, or operational costs stay high, margin recovery may lag.
• Competitive Pressure: Strong competition in jewellery / lifestyle segments (both organized & unorganized) could erode pricing power.
• Consumer Sentiment Risk: Since a portion of revenue is discretionary, an economic slowdown or weak consumer demand could hurt.
• Execution Risks: Expanding into new geographies (Tier 3/4) carries operational, supply chain, and brand dilution risks.

6. Q1 FY26 Results Snapshot

• Revenue: ₹16,523 crore — up 24.5% YoY (vs ₹13,266 cr)
• Profit: ₹1,091 crore — up ~52.6% YoY from ₹715 crore
• Over last 3 years: 15% profit CAGR, 28% sales CAGR, 32% ROE CAGR

These numbers reinforce that Titan continues to deliver growth, even amid margin pressures.

7. Valuation & Future Outlook

With the target price of ₹4,275 (from current levels around ₹3,400), Nomura is implying a ~27% upside.
The key for investors will be margin trends, new store expansion, and consumer demand sustainability. If Titan executes well, the upside may materialize — but risks are nontrivial.

8. Conclusion & Takeaway for Investors

Nomura’s initiation of coverage on Titan with a bullish target is a strong vote of confidence. The stock’s mix of growth, brand strength, and structural tailwinds make it an interesting candidate in the Tata Group universe.
However, investors must keep an eye on margin recovery, competition, and macro headwinds. If you believe in India’s consumption story over the medium term, Titan could be a compelling pick — but proceed with due diligence.

9. Disclaimer

The views in this article are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investing in equities involves risks. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.

FAQs 

Q1: Why did Nomura give a Buy rating on Titan?

Nomura sees structural demand in jewellery, wedding tailwinds, and margin recovery potential, supporting a 25%+ upside.

Q2: What is Nomura’s target price for Titan in 2025?

Nomura has set a target price of ₹4,275 per share, implying ~27% upside from current levels.

Q3: Is Titan the best Tata Group stock to buy now?

Titan is among the most favored due to its strong jewellery business, brand leadership, and consumer demand trends.

Q4: What are the key risks in Titan’s stock?

Margin pressure, competition, and discretionary spending risks could limit upside if not managed well.

Q5: Should retail investors buy Titan stock in 2025?

Titan is attractive for long-term investors bullish on India’s consumption story, but do consult your financial advisor before investing.